The following table summarizes the possibilities of what can happen in a face-off between two warlocks armed with disruptions. This is something that may apply at many points during a game. It is particularly important in the opening, when the disruptions themselves account for the bulk of the initiative in the game. Almost all openings will encounter these decision points at turn 3, and many will encounter them afterwards as well.
| Who is hit with a disruption? | Warlock A's Target | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent | Self | No one | ||
| Warlock B's Target | Opponent | A, B | None | A |
| Self | None | A, B | B | |
| No one | B | A | None | |
This table explains the conventional wisdom that, in such face-offs, it is usually best to fire the disruption at your opponent rather than trying to bounce one aimed at yourself, or trying to be extra tricky and targetting nobody. Consider, for example, a DP/PS vs. DP/PS face-off. If only one player is hit with Amnesia, he'll be at a significant disadvantage, so the safest route is to target your opponent; this guarantees that you won't be affected unless he is, too -- and it still leaves open the possibility of only your opponent being affected, if he tries something foolish.
Now consider a face-off of xDSF vs. PSDF. If the PSDF hits, it will make a big difference in the game, but both players can absorb the DSF into their spellflow without much trouble. The DSF player may be better off, over the long run, if he targets himself. The PSDF player, on the other hand, may be better off dummying the spell in favor of DPP or DSF one turn later.
In this situation, the player with the PSDF threat has soft control over the other player. Whether or not he casts his disruption, he has some measure of influence over what his opponent is going to do. Of course, as Warlocks is a reactive and predictive game, we always have some measure of soft control over our opponents, but disruptions extend the range of this threatened control -- since if they do hit, they go beyond soft control and impose hard control over the victim's gestures. Soft control is especially important in the opening, when the dimensions of the game space are small and a single connecting disruption can drastically alter it in its entirity.
Understanding this concept is critical for any serious analysis of opening sequences. It is tempting, when we see such a decision point, to throw up our hands and say "anything could happen" -- doubly so if there are monsters and charms involved. Anything could happen, yes, but that doesn't mean it will happen in practice; some lines are usually better than others. (You can always gamble against the odds, and sometimes you will win; but you will either lose more often than you win, or the penalty will surpass the prize. See Decision Points for more on this.) Therefore, by evaluating what is likely to happen, we can sort out which line is preferable in a particular match-up.
| Result of monster/charm face-off | Warlock A's Spell | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Summon | Nothing | ||
| Warlock B's Spell | PSDF | A is charmed A gets monster | A is charmed |
| PSDD | B gets monster | None | |
The summoner has a chance of coming out ahead; but altogether, the decision point favors the charmer. Additionally, in the early game, D tends to be a more useful departing gesture than F or W are, so the charmer sometimes gets a little initiative, despite that potentially useless, nails-on-chalkboard DD.
However, despite this matrix, and despite what I said in the previous section, there are some situations involving summons where it is impossible to say where the advantage lies. Generally, these involve goblins. These are the situations where, over a handful of turns, there are multiple missiles and charms, or maladroits and goblins, and of course many chances to target shields and monsters' attacks. Among such a profusion of decision points with tiny risks and tiny rewards, the end result really is a toss-up, if the players are of comparable skill. Certain openings tend to encourage these situations, especially those involving Maladroit.